Driver Shortage - What Will it Mean for You?

The RV industry is showing signs of another year-over-year improvement with anticipated volume growth in 2011 (Wall Street Journal).  The final step in getting units to the dealers is just as important as any other when it comes right down to it.  If all else comes off without a hitch, RV transport companies do not want to be the bottleneck that breaks the system.

Looking at the transportation industry prognostications for 2011, I fear that is exactly what is going to happen.

Driver shortages are being predicted in the "truck driving" industry - generally referring to Heavy Duty
trucks (otherwise known as Class 8 or semi trucks).  That dilemma trickles to the specialized industry of RV transport as well.  As big truck companies look to add to their fleets, they recruit pickup truck drivers through enticements of sign-on bonuses and offers to pay for CDL school so they can make the jump from a pickup to the big rig.

That spells trouble for all those hoping for a stable and reliable delivery system in the coming years (RV manufacturers, dealers and retail customers).

Heavy Duty Shortage Estimates
According to FTR Associates (a freight transportation research company) as reported on the Heavy Duty Trucking website, the coming big rig driver shortage is projected to start in 2011 and peak in 2014 at an astonishing shortage of 400,000 drivers.

(To put that into perspective, there was an estimated surplus of 170,000 semi trucks and drivers in 2009 )

What are some of the causes of the driver shortage?

1. Casualties: the Great Recession over the last three years has driving them out of the industry (no pun intended).
2. CSA 2010, new regulations on truck drivers that track violations at the individual level that may prevent some from being hired by carriers if they appear to be unsafe drivers.
3. Anicipated changes to Hours of Service regulations which will further strangle productivity (by an estimated 6%).
4. An aging driver base without the corresponding "new" entrants into the industry (age requirements that leave a gap between high school and the minimum age to qualify, resulting in carreer choices other than truck driving before they reach that minimum age).

Now What?

We already experienced shipping delays from late winter through mid summer of 2010 due to a shortage of drivers.  That shortage was partially caused by the poor economy and low shipping volumes in previous years weeding out the pool of drivers.  How many of those drivers do you think will be a little gun-shy before getting back into RV transportation again?

With all of these factors coming together all at once and just as we anticipate RV shipments will be taking off, what will this mean for you?

Should we all be trying to solve the driver shortage problem before it becomes a driver shortage crisis?

What do you think should be done to ensure that dealers get their units when they need them?

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